[... continued from yesterday]
[Note added April 29: Through correspondence with some of the authors from what I label as the "French group" below I have learned that the density threshold was actually applied in their work as well. This makes things rather confusing as it means that their methods and the methods of "the DHB" are much more similar. However, they have also updated their paper to reflect new knowledge about the void catalogues and see a slightly more significant signal, similar to what Planck find (see note below). Everything is rather confusing right now. Again, once the dust has settled, I will write a post clearing everything up.]
[Note added March 21: Wow, sometimes science moves quickly. Today Planck released its data. They appear to confirm the anomalous spots in the original "Granett" (Hawaiian) result. They also appear to confirm the new anomalous result that was present in the paper that is now retracted (see the note below from March 19), albeit with a slightly reduced significance. It is unclear exactly what is going on, but it is clear that it is something interesting. I will keep you informed as things progress.]
[Noted added March 19: The paper described in the second half of this post (I called its authors the DHB) has been withdrawn from the journal it was submitted to (see the new abstract at this link: http://arxiv.org/abs/1301.6136). It is unclear whether the problems that the authors found in their analysis will affect their conclusions. However, I suggest you are cautious regarding how you interpret the conclusions I have drawn below based on this paper. I will keep you informed as/when things progress.]
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A really neat figure from arXiv:1301.5849 showing the locations and sizes of the various catalogues of voids being examined. A larger redshift means the void is further away from us and one Megaparsec (Mpc) corresponds to three million light years. The purple "Granett et al." box is the original catalogue used by the Hawaiian group back in 2008. |
Isn't this just "a posteriori" statistics?
There is another possible explanation for the mystery. The probability of ZOBOV picking out these lines of sight at random is exceedingly small (less than 0.003), but it isn't zero. Might this have just been a crazy fluke?
Suppose 100 different groups of physicists look for unexpected, but interesting, signals in cosmological data. Then, even if each group is very careful you still expect one of them to find something that would seem to them to be unlikely. Unfortunately, they would be the only ones to publish their results. So we wouldn't see one “detection” paper and ninety-nine papers consistent with no detection. We would just see the one “detection” paper.
The best way to determine whether this is what happened is to look for the signal in other surveys. If the original measurement was a fluke, it won't show up anywhere else. But, if it does show up again, then the chances that it was a fluke will significantly diminish.
The Friday before last
a paper appeared that did exactly this.
A French group took two catalogues of voids (so no over-densities), which have been produced by applying ZOBOV to a new catalogue of galaxies (these ones are closer to us). The French group then did more or less the same thing as the Hawaiians did. They examined images of the CMB along the lines of sight of these voids, averaged the temperature in all the images and checked whether the resulting signal could have happened at random.
They found no significant result.
This was quite sobering to read on the day. The paper did verify the significance of the original measurement, but not finding it in the new catalogues was highly suggestive that the story I painted above of a sort of community wide “
look elsewhere effect” was true.
Hold on though!
Things at this date in time did look bad for the anomaly, but there was one important piece missing from the French group's analysis. The Hawaiians only used the most extreme over and under-dense regions in their analysis. ZOBOV found many more than 50 regions for them and if they had used all of them, they
also wouldn't have obtained a statistically significant signal. This was always a crucial part of their analysis because we already knew from
other observations that the observed ISW effect from most of the universe is as small as the predicted signal.
What would the French group have seen if they had only examined the most extreme voids?
A new observation
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Apparently it is a rule of thumb for observers, that the more interesting your observation is, the more boring you are meant to make your title. These guys probably deserve a promotion. The paper is here. |
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Three days later (last Monday) a mixture of physicists from
Durham,
Hawaii and
Baltimore (the DHB)
released a paper. It answered the question posed above. For anybody interested in finding new physics, the answer is very exciting.