Mysterious news stories about supervoids

Early last week a news story broke about a supervoid. The supervoid was claimed to be a number of things, from an explanation for "the cold spot", to the biggest "structure" yet found in the universe, to just "mysterious".

Whether it is a structure or not entirely depends on how you define structure, so I won't discuss whether it is or isn't a structure. However, if you do allow it to be a structure, it isn't the biggest structure yet found. It's hard to do a like for like comparison with other "superstructures". However, there are regions of the universe where the density of observable matter is smaller, for a wider range, so by any definition I can think of, this structure has been beaten.

The cold spot is a region in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) that has a temperature profile that is somewhat unexpected (due to a combination of a cold central spot and a hot ring around it). Whether this void could be the explanation of the cold spot has been explained in this paper and this blog post by Sesh. It can't, not without a significant deviation from General Relativity (and a sufficiently big deviation that it would be very strange that these deviations haven't been seen elsewhere). It's worth stressing right now that it isn't the coldness of the cold spot that is itself anomalous. This is a subtle point so just about anyone who says "the cold spot is too cold" can be forgiven for the mistake, but in reality the cold spot isn't too cold. In fact it has more or less exactly the coldness expected of the coldest spot in the CMB. What isn't expected is that there will be a hot ring around such a cold spot. Actually, it's worth stressing further that it isn't even the hot ring that is, by itself, anomalous. Such a hot ring is also quite likely in the CMB. The anomalousness of the cold spot is caused by the fact that both of these features are present, right next to each other. I explained this curiosity in this blog entry, but it is worth repeating.

I want to address now quickly the claim that this supervoid is mysterious. The quantitative source for the claim that the void is mysterious comes from the claim in the paper about the void that it is "at least a \(3.3 \sigma\) fluctuation" and that "\(p=0.007\) ... characterizing the cosmic rarity of the supervoid". However (and this is the crucial point) what these numbers quantify is the probability that something as extreme as this void could exist at a random point of the universe (or, more precisely, a random point within the part of the universe seen by a particular observational survey). What these numbers do not quantify is the probability that the whole survey could have seen something this extreme. These are two separate statistical things and the relevant one for claiming mysteriousness is the second one. I'll try to estimate this probability.

I don't have any reason to doubt the numbers they quote for the probability that this void could exist at a random line of sight in the survey. If I use the quoted radius, density contrast and redshift of the void I also calculate it to be a \(\sim 3\sigma\) fluctuation in the matter field. This can be done first by calculating the root-mean-square of the density (contrast) field of the universe when it is smoothed over a particular radius. This quantity, "\(\sigma_R\)", is commonly used in large scale structure. Then, the ratio of the density (contrast) of the obtained void and the \(\sigma_R\) value for the radius of the void gives you \(\sim 3.5\) so I trust that the more sophisticated analyses in the paper are correct, or at least aren't obtaining wildly wrong answers. If one assumes (probably validly) that the large scale density field of the universe has a Gaussian distribution this can be translated into a probability that the observed fluctuation could occur at any random position in the universe.

So, the crucial question that now needs to be asked before calling this supervoid mysterious is whether the survey used to find it saw enough of the universe to witness this rare an event. The size of the void in the sky is approximately \(10\) degrees (as quoted in their abstract). This means it has an area of approximately \(100\) square degrees on the sky. The void was found using data from the WISE and 2MASS all-sky surveys. However the whole sky isn't usable for robust analysis due to foregrounds, the galaxy, etc. Thankfully for our goal, the authors of the supervoid paper also wrote a paper about the catalogue of galaxies they used to find the supervoid and in the abstract of that paper they estimate that their catalogue covers 21,200 square degrees of the sky.

What does this mean when we pull it all together? Well, the catalogue used to find the 100 square degree thing, covered 21,200 square degrees of the sky. Therefore, there were \(\sim 21200/100 \simeq 200\) independent \(100\) square degree patches of the sky seen by the survey. Using their own probability for this void existing at any particular line of sight of \(p=0.007\) this gives a very approximate estimate of the expected number of under-dense regions of the universe at least as extreme as the "mysterious" supervoid. The answer is \(N \sim 200*0.007 = 1.4\).

So, not only is the supervoid not actually mysterious, it is in fact more or less exactly in line with naive expectations!

Twitter: @just_shaun

A new cosmological coincidence problem?

One of the consequences of the BICEP2 data from last week, should it hold up to scrutiny, and be seen by other experiments (I hope it holds up to scrutiny and is seen by other experiments), is that there is a significant lack of "power" in the temperature anisotropies on large angular scales.

What that sentence means is that when you look at the CMB in very large patches on the sky (about the size of the moon and bigger) its temperature fluctuates from patch to patch less than we would expect.

This was already somewhat the case before the BICEP2 discovery, but BICEP2 made it much more significant. The reason for this will hopefully turn into a post of its own one day, but, essentially, the primordial gravitational waves that BICEP2 has hopefully discovered would themselves have seeded temperature anisotropies on these large angular scales. Previously, we could just assume that the primordial gravitational waves had a really small amplitude and thus didn't affect the temperature much at all. Now, however, it seems like they might be quite large and therefore, this apparent lack of power becomes much more pertinent.

That's all fine and is something that any model of inflation that hopes to explain the origin of these gravitational waves will need to explain, despite what many cosmologists already writing papers on the ArXiv seem to want to believe (links withheld). As a side, ever-so-slightly-frustrated, note, the only papers I've seen that have actually analysed the data, rather than repeating old claims, have confirmed this problem that was clear from, at the latest, the day after the announcement.

But why does it imply a "cosmological coincidence problem"? And why is it a new coincidence problem? What's the old one?

The “ISW mystery” deepens considerably (II)

[... continued from yesterday]

[Note added April 29: Through correspondence with some of the authors from what I label as the "French group" below I have learned that the density threshold was actually applied in their work as well. This makes things rather confusing as it means that their methods and the methods of "the DHB" are much more similar. However, they have also updated their paper to reflect new knowledge about the void catalogues and see a slightly more significant signal, similar to what Planck find (see note below). Everything is rather confusing right now. Again, once the dust has settled, I will write a post clearing everything up.]

[Note added March 21: Wow, sometimes science moves quickly. Today Planck released its data. They appear to confirm the anomalous spots in the original "Granett" (Hawaiian) result. They also appear to confirm the new anomalous result that was present in the paper that is now retracted (see the note below from March 19), albeit with a slightly reduced significance. It is unclear exactly what is going on, but it is clear that it is something interesting. I will keep you informed as things progress.]

[Noted added March 19: The paper described in the second half of this post (I called its authors the DHB) has been withdrawn from the journal it was submitted to (see the new abstract at this link: http://arxiv.org/abs/1301.6136). It is unclear whether the problems that the authors found in their analysis will affect their conclusions. However, I suggest you are cautious regarding how you interpret the conclusions I have drawn below based on this paper. I will keep you informed as/when things progress.]

A really neat figure from arXiv:1301.5849 showing the locations and sizes of the various catalogues of voids being examined. A larger redshift means the void is further away from us and one Megaparsec (Mpc) corresponds to three million light years. The purple "Granett et al." box is the original catalogue used by the Hawaiian group back in 2008. 

Isn't this just "a posteriori" statistics?

There is another possible explanation for the mystery. The probability of ZOBOV picking out these lines of sight at random is exceedingly small (less than 0.003), but it isn't zero. Might this have just been a crazy fluke?

Suppose 100 different groups of physicists look for unexpected, but interesting, signals in cosmological data. Then, even if each group is very careful you still expect one of them to find something that would seem to them to be unlikely. Unfortunately, they would be the only ones to publish their results. So we wouldn't see one “detection” paper and ninety-nine papers consistent with no detection. We would just see the one “detection” paper.

The best way to determine whether this is what happened is to look for the signal in other surveys.  If the original measurement was a fluke, it won't show up anywhere else. But, if it does show up again, then the chances that it was a fluke will significantly diminish.

The Friday before last a paper appeared that did exactly this. A French group took two catalogues of voids (so no over-densities), which have been produced by applying ZOBOV to a new catalogue of galaxies (these ones are closer to us). The French group then did more or less the same thing as the Hawaiians did. They examined images of the CMB along the lines of sight of these voids, averaged the temperature in all the images and checked whether the resulting signal could have happened at random.

They found no significant result.

This was quite sobering to read on the day. The paper did verify the significance of the original measurement, but not finding it in the new catalogues was highly suggestive that the story I painted above of a sort of community wide “look elsewhere effect” was true.

Hold on though!

Things at this date in time did look bad for the anomaly, but there was one important piece missing from the French group's analysis. The Hawaiians only used the most extreme over and under-dense regions in their analysis. ZOBOV found many more than 50 regions for them and if they had used all of them, they also wouldn't have obtained a statistically significant signal. This was always a crucial part of their analysis because we already knew from other observations that the observed ISW effect from most of the universe is as small as the predicted signal.

What would the French group have seen if they had only examined the most extreme voids?

A new observation

Apparently it is a rule of thumb for observers, that the more interesting your observation is, the more boring you are meant to make your title. These guys probably deserve a promotion. The paper is here.

Three days later (last Monday) a mixture of physicists from Durham, Hawaii and Baltimore (the DHB) released a paper. It answered the question posed above. For anybody interested in finding new physics, the answer is very exciting.

The “ISW mystery” deepens considerably

Other than my initials, what secrets does the CMB hide that are waiting to be seen only when the CMB is examined in just the right way?

This time last year I wrote a few posts describing what I called the “ISW mystery” (Part I, II, III and IV). A year has passed, it is time for an update on the mystery.

The very short summary is that things are starting to get more than a little bit exciting. All of the plausible ways in which the calculation of the expected ISW signal could have been wrong have been checked and eliminated as possibilities; if the measured signal is real, it is too large for the standard cosmological model. Much, much more excitingly, the observation that generated the mystery has now been repeated in another region of the universe and a very similar and equally anomalous signal was found; the apparent anomaly was not a statistical fluke.

The preprint of the paper describing this new observation was released just a week ago.

What is the “ISW mystery”?

The image that began the mystery. Why is that spot so hot, and how did it get that cold ring around it?

A quick recap will probably be useful. The integrated Sachs-Wolfe (ISW) effect describes the heating and cooling of light as it passes through gravitational peaks and valleys late in the evolution of the universe. In the standard cosmological model, these peaks and valleys decay with time, so a light ray gains (or loses) more energy entering an over-dense (or under-dense) region of the universe than it loses (or gains) leaving it. The effect is very, very small. Almost every source of light in the universe is not known well enough to be used to detect it. Only the cosmic microwave background (CMB) is uniform enough that these tiny fluctuations could ever be detected.

However, even then, the primary fluctuations in the the temperature of the CMB are bigger than the secondary ones created by the ISW effect. We can measure these fluctuations but we could never know how much is due to the ISW effect and how much is primordial. The only thing we can do is look at the structures in the universe nearby and see if on average the CMB is slightly hotter (colder) along lines of sight where the nearby universe is over-dense (under-dense). The bigger, primordial fluctuations in the CMB should have nothing to do with local structures (the CMB has come from much further away). Therefore, if this signal were to be found in the CMB, the most plausible explanation would be an ISW effect.

A group in Hawaii decided to look for this signal in a slightly unusual way. Firstly, they made a catalogue of significant over and under-dense regions in a particular survey of galaxies. Then, they only examined patches of the CMB that existed along the line of sight of each of these regions. They then found that the patches aligned with over-densities were hotter on average than a randomly selected patch and those aligned with under-densities were colder (with more than “\(4\sigma\)” significance). This is what one would expect from an ISW effect. The “ISW mystery” is that these patches were too hot and too cold. The ISW effect simply shouldn't be that big.

The importance of checking the anomaly from every angle

The ISW Mystery IV: Where does the evidence lead?

Where does the evidence lead? (Photograph: H Armstrong Roberts/Corbis)

In my last three major posts (I, II and III) I've been talking you through a mystery: the integrated Sachs-Wolfe mystery. This post will be able to be read on its own, but it you will appreciate it much more if you have also read them. In today's post I will be playing detective, examining the evidence, looking for leads and weighing up the various possible solutions to the mystery. Like any good mystery there are hints as to what the resolution might be, but like any good mystery story some of these hints might turn out to be just be red herrings, so we need to be careful.

At the beginning of my most recent post in this series I warned you that it would be my most technical post to date, but encouraged you to stick with it. With this post, the situation is the opposite. That post contained the details of the actual measurement that was made, which is necessarily going to be somewhat dry and technical. This post, however, speculates about what might have caused the effect. As you'll soon see, solving the mystery potentially requires modifications to our understanding of fundamental physics or the initial conditions of the universe. All very exciting stuff, so congratulations for making it to this point.

An overview of the case:

Before embarking on the detective work, let me recap the first three posts in this series. In the first post, I introduced what the integrated Sachs-Wolfe effect is. It is the very subtle heating and cooling of light as it passes through over and under dense regions of the universe. In the second post I explained that this effect is so small that it almost certainly will never be observed directly. The only hope we have to observe it is to look for statistical correlations between the temperature of light on the sky and the density of the matter that the light travelled through to reach us. Only the cosmic microwave background (CMB) is uniform enough that such a statistical correlation could ever be observed. In the last instalment, I told you of a particular measurement that intended to detect this ISW effect by looking at extreme over and under densities in the universe. The measurement appeared to be a success because it did measure a correlation. The only problem, and the source of the mystery, is that the size of the correlation is far too big to be from the ISW effect.

Something in those structures is heating/cooling the CMB, but what?

The ISW mystery III: How did the CMB get so hot?

An example map of what the ISW effect would look like on the sky if we could observe it directly (arxiv:1003.0974)

This is probably my most technical post to date. I don't want my contributions to this blog to be (all the time) popularised, ready to consume, pieces of quirky science. I want you to know what we, the cosmologists, are thinking and wondering about each day, beyond just vague explanations about accelerated expansion, dark energy and dark matter. I want you to understand how we're trying to explore the mysteries of cosmology. What are we measuring, how are we measuring it and what are we hoping it will tell us? Doing this has to be a two-way process. I invest time writing, doing my best to make things like the Integrated Sachs-Wolfe effect understandable and you invest time and concentration trying to understand.

The benefit for you of doing this is great. You will become engaged in the science in real time. When the mystery I'm about to reveal finally gets solved you will already be there waiting, expecting. You will be able to bask in the wonder of the discovery during the moments of discovery. Hence, it will also be your discovery.

You will only get this though, if you concentrate and think and read this post through. So, if you don't get it the first time, think about it and read it again. And, if you are left confused by anything, ask!

Recap of earlier posts

I'm going to describe in this post why there is an “ISW mystery”. I described in this post that the integrated Sachs-Wolfe (ISW) effect is the subtle heating and cooling of light as it passes through over and under-dense regions/structures in the universe. For most of the universe's history this effect was effectively non-existent. Any energy gained by light falling into a structure in the universe was perfectly balanced by the energy lost by the light climbing out of the structure. However, late in the universe's history something starts pushing the universe apart and as a result there is a net energy change. The gravitational well is smaller when the light leaves the structure than when it goes in.

Then, in this post, I explained that the ISW effect is incredibly small. This makes observing it very difficult. We can't observe it directly by looking at light from galaxies, quasars, supernovae, stars, etc. because we don't know the temperature of the light's source well enough. In fact, there is only one source of light that we do know well enough to use it to detect the ISW effect. This is the cosmic microwave background (CMB), which I introduce here. Unfortunately, even the tiny fluctuations in the temperature of the CMB are of the same size as the expected ISW temperature shifts. So, we still can't observe the ISW effect directly. What we can do though, is observe it on average. We know that the ISW effect occurs as light travels through over and under-dense regions in space. So what we can do is look for over and under-densities and ask whether the CMB is hotter on average when it has passed through an over-density and colder on average when it has passed through an under-density. How to find structures in space and what I mean by on average is covered in the post you are about to read...